
Many experts agree that the iPhone’s competitors sell primarily on price. Make the iPhone cheaper than all Android competitors, and Android would be pushed to the sidelines.
Ever since the iPad came out in April 2010, I’ve been hearing the same mantra whenever I talk about the iPad: Apple’s got about a year before they start losing market share. There’s no way they would maintain their dominance of the tablet market, and they stand to lose market share very rapidly, just as they lost it with the iPhone. Eventually the iPad would become just another speck in the tablet marketplace.
My first impression has been that this is probably true. After all, how would Apple — a premium, high-end brand — retain such a significant lead in the ultra-price-sensitive consumer electronics industry, and particularly with tablets — a product category that every major manufacturer has got their eyes on? That’s almost like Porsche aiming to outsell Toyota.
But I believe the iPad is different. It’s different because with iPad, Apple seems to take a somewhat different approach. Rather than pricing it as high as they could afford to (which is clearly what they’ve been doing with most of their products), they’ve priced this one in preparation for a fierce pricing battle with their competitors. It looks as though with iPad, Apple finally compromised and went with minimal margins, determined to maintain long-term market dominance.
Now, many experts agree that the iPhone’s competitors sell primarily on price. Make the iPhone cheaper than all Android competitors, and Android would be pushed to the sidelines. How many consumers (not counting developers/early-adopters/tech-geeks) do you know that would intentionally pick Android over iPhone, if it weren’t for the price difference? I don’t think I’ve ever met one.
Before you try and argue with that one, try and compare smartphone market share by price. Rather than comparing overall iPhone vs. Android sales, compare $600 Android phones vs. the iPhone (which sells for roughly $600 to operators). You might be surprised to learn that the (admittedly few) iPhone competitors selling at that price range are selling at insignificant quantities compared to the iPhone. In other words, there’s a reason why Apple is making all this money: They are successfully selling their amazingly-expensive iPhones in massive quantities. They may not hold the largest market share, but they are by far the most profitable player in this business.
What would happen if Apple were to give up their “Apple tax”, and compromise on lower margins in an effort to achieve and maintain market share?
The question I’d like to ask is: What would happen if Apple were to give up their “Apple tax”, and compromise on lower margins in an effort to achieve and maintain market share? I believe that is what’s happening with the iPad. Let’s take a look at some numbers.
The Average Selling Price (ASP) of the iPhone is around $630, and iSuppli estimated its Bill of Materials (BOM) at around $180. The ASP of the iPad is also around $630, but can you guess its BOM? Around $250 for the entry level model.
| iPad | iPhone | |
|---|---|---|
| Estimated ASP | $630 | $635 |
| Estimated BOM | $250 | $182 |
| Estimated Gross Margin | 40% | 60% |
In other words, with the iPad Apple clearly chose to forego some of their profits in order to achieve extremely competitive pricing. And here’s the other point: While a 40% gross margin may sound generous, it is based on the extremely aggressive pricing Apple gets from its manufacturing partners and component vendors due to Apple’s massive manufacturing volumes. This means that for most of Apple’s competitors, competing with the iPad on pricing is going to be damn near impossible.
So the question remains: Assuming the iPad remains one of the cheapest tablets around, what would possibly entice consumers to choose their competitor’s products?
I believe the answer is that unless competitors release products with significant functional advantages, or alternatively, with significant pricing advantages (highly unlikely, in my opinion), Apple will easily maintain its market dominance, at least for the foreseeable future.

In trying to gauge and estimate market forces, I find that people often fail to recognize the importance of corporate values, and just how strongly they affect the outcome of various ongoing industry battles: Android vs. iPhone vs. Nokia, Apple vs. Flash, etc., are all far better understood when viewed from a company values standpoint. You see, a corporation is like an individual human being in the sense that it has core values — top priority issues that matter the most to its top brass, and therefore (hopefully) also to its very last employee. As a side-note, companies that fail to convey such values to their employees usually fail at the outset, and are not part of this discussion. 